Thursday, April 3, 2014

Welsh Jesus is Risen!

Today Arsenal announced that both Nacho Monreal and Aaron Ramsey will be returning to the first team ahead of Sunday's crucial match at Everton in the race for 4th place.

The addition of Ramsey, in particular, has Arsenal fans very excited. The Wales international was the best player in England before getting injured against West Ham on Boxing Day. He has been sorely missed in the 20 matches Arsenal played without him.

Arsenal was top after a 3-1 win on Boxing day with 12 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in their first 18 Premier League matches. Ramsey played all of them, scoring 8 goals and assisting 6 more in 18 league matches.

Since losing "the Welsh Jesus" to injury, Arsenal have won just 7 league matches, drawn 4 and lost 3. Additional injuries to Wilshere and Ozil also led to this dip in form, but Ramsey has been the most sorely missed player in England, not just at Arsenal. Ramsey's efforts in the first half of the year may have been as good as a Premier League midfielder has ever played.

Ramsey has developed into a very good tackler and a better defensive player than he is given credit for. But his real strength, and what separates him from the competition, is his goal scoring.

Ramsey scored 15 goals in 31 total matches before his injury. With a goalscoring record of 48% (goals/games), Ramsey's form defied logic for his position. Ramsey is a deep-lying, box-to-box central midfielder, not an attacking midfielder. He also scored all 15 goals from open play; none from free kicks or penalties.

Had Ramsey kept form over the 20 matches missed in all competitions, he would have scored 25 goals this season. In the Premier League specifically, Ramsey would have scored roughly 7 goals in the last 14 Premier League games, taking his total up to 13, which would tie him with Olivier Giroud and Loic Remy for the 8th most in league play. Only Yaya Toure can boast a better goal rate from a similar midfield role this season.

Might Ramsey become the best British midfielder ever to play in the Premier League?

For years the Premier League's most revered home-grown central midfielders were Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. Both chipped in over 100 goals for their respective teams from midfield, and both seem to be the most logical comparison to Ramsey.

Lampard and Gerrard each have only put together one campaign with a goal rate even close to as lethal as Ramsey was for the first half of the season, however. And neither did so at such a young age.

Gerrard's best season was 2008/09, when he scored 19 goals in 41 total matches, a goal rate of 46%, just slightly lower than Ramsey's 48%. This was the only season Gerrard scored more than 15 goals in a season. He was 28 years old.

Again, Ramsey scored 15 goals in the first half of this season at a 48% rate. Ramsey is 23 years old.

Lampard is a much higher standard, as far as goalscoring goes. Lampard has a significantly more consistent goal scoring rate for Chelsea. Lampard scored 15 more goals in 9 different seasons. But Lampard's goal rate was 40% or higher just 3 times: 20 goals in 50 matches in 2005/06 (40%), 16 goals in 38 matches in 2011/12 (42%), and his best ever season, 27 goals in 51 matches in 2009/10 (53%).

Lampard was 31 in that season, and his goalscoring record was boosted, perhaps artificially, by converting 10 penalty kicks in the Premier League alone--the 2nd most ever by an EPL player.

In the end, both Lampard and Gerrard only have had one season where they scored as frequently as Ramsey. They did so at a much older age, and the goals scored were less difficult as both players were designated penalty takers for their teams.

Simply put, the numbers suggest Aaron Ramsey could become the best goalscoring British midfielder in Premier League history.

His "resurrection" from injury will be rejoiced by Gunners fans across the world.

Easter has come early for the Arsenal.

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